Exports to Germany seen rising 9% y/y in 2016
“Considering the trends of the past few years, one can assume that the growth rate of exports to Germany will be somewhat above the overall growth rate of Polish exports this and next year,” Polish-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (AHK) director general Michael Kern estimates for PAP.
In the coming years, Poland should enjoy a stable upward trend in the growth of exports to Germany, Kern predicts. In 2015, the growth rate should hit 10-11%, while in 2016 it should be some 9%.
“Naturally, one should take into account the economic growth forecasts for Germany and hence for demand for Polish goods and services in Germany,” he notes.
The German economy should grow by 1.9% y/y in 2015 and by 2.0% y/y in 2016, according to the EC forecasts.
“One should also note the phenomenon of the steadily increasing Polish engagement in the international chain of supply. The intensity of trade within international production and distribution chains, the so-called GVC (global value chains), is rising. Also the continuing limitations imposed on the goods exchange with Russia and Ukraine will still have an impact on the scale of trade exchange,” Kern adds.
Exports to UK seen growing 8-12% in 2016
For the Polish exports to the UK, British-Polish Chamber of Commerce (BPCC) expects an increase by 8-12% in 2016 to more than EUR 13 bln.
“I estimate the growth of the Polish exports to the UK in 2016 to fall between 8% and 12%. This year, Polish exports should exceed EUR 12 bln and next they could even reach EUR 13-13.4 bln,” BPCC's Michael Dembinski said for PAP.
These predictions are linked to the UK's economic growth and the increase of domestic demand.
“The British economy is now growing at a faster pace than any other large state of the 'old EU'. This year, the economy is seen expanding by 2.5%, while next year the growth rate is to decelerate to 2.3%,” he said.
BPCC sees no significant legislative changes which could influence the trade exchange between Poland and the UK.
“The only uncertainty in 2016 could be tied to the issue of the 'Brexit' referendum. If a sentiment appears concerning a high risk of the UK exiting the EU, then Polish exporters may begin to treat the British market somewhat more cautiously,” in Dembinski's opinion.
Exports to Czech Republic set to hit EUR 13.4 bln in 2016
Growth of Polish exports to the Czech Republic should maintain the rate of between 10% and 20% in 2016, according to Milan Wenit, head of the trade promotion and investments department of the Polish embassy in Prague. Polish exports to the Czech Republic should reach a value of about EUR 12.0 bln in 2015 and of some EUR 13.4 bln in 2016.
“This forecast should be based on the continuing good economic situation in the Czech Republic and relatively high economic growth, currently above 4%,” Wenit notes.
In his opinion, the Czech Republic could soon become the second biggest recipient of Polish goods and services, after Germany.
Exports to France seen rising 5% in 2016
For Polish exports to France, the French-Polish Chamber of Commerce forecasts a growth rate of some 5% in 2016, similar to 2015 pace. The value of exports by end-2016 is seen at EUR 10 bln with industry expected to keep the position of the leader in terms of exports.
“In 2008-2014, the value of Polish exports to France rose by 50%,” the chamber's official Nadia Bouacid told PAP. Given the growth rates indicated by the latest data, exports to France are quite likely to exceed EUR 9.5 bln already in 2015 and hit some EUR 10 bln in 2016 that would translate to a y/y growth rate of 5% in 2016, according to Bouacid.
In the coming quarters, food exports should develop especially robustly, according to the assessment of the chamber. Such products as tobacco, meat, sugar syrups or alcohol traditionally enjoy the biggest demand on the French market, while some interest is becoming apparent also in e.g. frozen fruit, forest mushroom or snails.
Further growth in foods exports is connected to the Russian embargo on Polish food products and the reversal of the exports direction to west from east. Other sectors that should grow in 2016 include textiles, furniture and window joinery as well as automotive.
“Actions of the French government aimed at attracting foreign investors are a significant factor which may cause an increase in Polish exports to France,” Bouacid says. “This will also influence those Polish firms which will want to set up branches in France. If Polish enterprises begin to invest on the territory of France, it will likely also increase Polish exports. This is a direction that we believe to have enormous potential.”
Source: Ministry of Treasury / Polish Press Agency, Economic Service